Back in recession

08.09.2023

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The German Institute for Economic Research is one of the most influential and authoritative. It was founded back in 1925 and has received a huge number of prestigious awards for the best research and forecasts in various sectors of the economy.

Today, in an official forecast, the German Economic Institute DIW worsened its forecast for German GDP dynamics in 2023 to -0.4% from -0.2%.

It is generally accepted among economists that if a country’s GDP deteriorates for more than three months, then such a country is at the stage of default or in deep stagnation of economic growth.

Market reviews

Strategies for investing in stocks and indexes

Global stock markets experienced notable fluctuations on Monday as investors reacted to key economic data and earnings reports. Both U.S. and European stock indexes fell, reflecting the heightened uncertainty in the financial landscape.

Gold’s meteoric rise amid Israel-Hamas war

The price of gold has recently seen a significant recovery, climbing over 1.0% to trade in the $2,660s per troy ounce. This resurgence is largely attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions following the Israeli army’s ground invasion of Lebanon, which has increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Several factors have contributed to the recent movements in gold prices.

Key Oil market moves to invest

Saudi Arabia is poised to shift its oil production strategy, moving away from its unofficial target of $100 per barrel. This change comes as the kingdom prepares to incrementally increase its monthly oil output, aiming to add a total of 1 million barrels per day by December 2025. This policy shift acknowledges the current weakness in oil prices and aims to stabilize the market while ensuring the kingdom’s economic stability through alternative funding sources.

Time to Invest in Chinese Tech Giants

The recent decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to cut interest rates has had a significant impact on the financial markets. This move, aimed at revitalizing the world's second-largest economy, has led to notable gains in Chinese shares and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Gas. Winter is coming!

Natural gas prices have been experiencing significant fluctuations due to various global factors. A decline in energy consumption in the US and Europe has put downward pressure on prices, while geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have disrupted global trade and energy supplies. Additionally, Europe is grappling with the aftermath of an energy crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Bitcoin Uncertainty

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a decline in early trading on Friday, September 6, following a more than 3% drop the previous day. Market participants had anticipated a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, which could potentially boost the legacy cryptocurrency. However, Bitcoin has fallen around 24% since its record high on March 14, due to a lack of new narratives to drive bullish sentiment.

Oil Market Shake-Up: Buy or Sell?

Oil prices have been trending lower recently, influenced by expectations of an increase in OPEC+ production from October. Also, signs of weak demand in major economies such as China and the United States have raised concerns about future consumption growth.

Gold and Silver are rising again

The gold market is currently experiencing positive momentum, with prices trading in favorable territory on the daily chart. Despite being constrained by a five-month-old ascending channel’s upper boundary and the all-time high, the overall outlook remains bullish due to recent events.